Archived UK House Prices Forecasts and Predictions from Mortgagesorter UK at 11 1 2008

House Price Forecasts and Predictions in the UK at 11 1 2008

UK House Prices Situation: Prices weakening in many areas

UK House Prices Forecast: Real terms fall in prices in 2008

What Will House Prices Do In 2008?

Forecasting future house price movements is a risky business - especially with the longer-term effects of the credit crunch still unclear and house prices at the top of a long period of growth.

With that in mind, here are six of the most authoritative predictions for the year ahead:

• Halifax: 0%
• Nationwide: 0%
• RICS: 0%
• CML (Council of Mortgage Lenders): +1%
• John Charcol (mortgage broker): -2%
• Capital Economics: -5%

The first thing to note about these figures is that they don't include the effects of inflation. If prices actually stay the same next year (i.e. 0% change) then they will fall in real terms. This is because inflation means that the value of money decreases each year. (A good example of this is petrol - £1 now won't buy as much as £1 a year ago).

The other point that's worth noting is that of the companies listed above, only Capital Economics has nothing to lose by house prices falling - the businesses of all the other forecasters will all be damaged by a falling house market. Perhaps it is not a coincidence that Capital Economics forecast is the most negative.

First-Time Buyer Numbers At 27-year Low

The number of first-time buyers (FTBs) who entered the market in 2007 was the lowest since 1980 - and a massive 44% less than in 2002. In the same period, the average house price paid by FTBs has increased by 82% - so it's hardly surprising that FTBs are being priced out of the market.

More and more FTBs have had to resort to renting or living in shared accommodation as average house prices have become unaffordable in 466 of 483 towns surveyed by Halifax in England and Wales.

Unaffordable areas are defined as having an average house price of more than four times the average income in that area.

Latest House Prices Forecasts and Predictions in the UK

House Prices Forecasts and Predictions to 10/10/2006

House Prices Forecasts and Predictions to 27/10/2006

House Prices Forecasts and Predictions to 3/11/2006

House Prices Forecasts and Predictions to 7/11/2006

House Prices Forecasts and Predictions to 22/11/2006

House Prices Forecasts and Predictions to 27/11/2006

House Prices Forecasts and Predictions to 3/12/2006

House Prices Forecasts and Predictions to 10/12/2006

House Prices Forecasts and Predictions to 17/12/2006

House Prices Forecasts and Predictions to 22/12/2006