UK House Prices Situation: Strong

UK House Prices Forecast: Remaining strong but slower growth throughout 2007

House Price Forecasts – What To Believe?

In recent weeks we have seen a variety of house price forecasts for 2007 from various respected sources – Halifax, Nationwide and others.

Nationwide and Halifax both claim that house prices rose by about 10 per cent in 2006, and this is certainly a figure that has been widely bandied around in the press.

On the other hand, the Hometrack index, which uses data gathered from 6,000 estate agents, claims that average house prices rose by only 5.7 per cent in 2006.

Predictions for 2007 vary from 4 percent to 10 per cent - the truth is that this average figure is not really relevant for most people, as regional variations in house prices are so dramatic – both in terms of price levels and rate of growth.

So with that in mind, what does 2007 hold? Regional breakdowns of 2006 data suggest that the strongest growth will be in London and the South-east, with East Anglia, the South West and North West continuing to experience strong growth, along with Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales.

The East and West Midlands, Yorkshire and Humberside and the North East are likely to experience much slower growth – probably no more than the level of inflation.

Are Higher Interest Rates Causing The Market To Slow?

New data published by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) suggests that the rate of growth of the housing market might be starting to slow, in the wake of last year's two interest rate rises.

RICS data shows that although house prices rose in December, the rate of increase was the lowest for four months. 37 per cent more RICS members reported a rise in house prices than a fall in December – a positive result, but a sharp decrease from November, when 46.9 per cent more members reported a rise than a fall.

January's surprise interest rate rise is likely to cause this trend to continue, but at present it is too soon to determine a definite trend in house price growth.