| UK
House Prices Situation: Rate of growth slowing dramatically.
UK
House Prices Forecast: Property values likely to fall.
RICS
Reports Increased Negative Sentiment on Prices
The
number of chartered surveyors reporting a fall in house
prices increased again in January, according
to the latest monthly survey from the Royal Institution
of Chartered Surveyors (RICS).
The
survey found that 54.7% more surveyors reported a fall
than a rise in house prices in January
- up from 49.1% in December. This figure has been rising
steadily for several months and is considered a good leading
indicator of the direction house prices are moving in.
The
level of unsold stock per surveyor is now 85 - the highest
level reached since 1999. This level has increased by
40% since September 2007 - and is up 10% in the last month
alone.
Commenting
on the survey results, RICS spokesman Jeremy Leaf said
that:
"In
the near term, the housing market will continue to be
shielded from significant price falls while employment
conditions are strong. The market need
only fear a significant fall in prices if job losses start
to multiply."
Leading
Bank Forecasts 5% Drop In 2008
Goldman
Sachs, one of the world's leading merchant banks and one
of very few organisations to predict and profit from the
US sub-prime mortgage fiasco, have adjusted their house
price forecasts for 2008 and 2009.
Goldman
now expect to see UK house prices fall by an average of
5% in 2008, with a further 2% fall in 2009. Previously,
the bank had only expected a 3% fall this year, but has
adjusted its forecast due to growing evidence of a more
significant economic slowdown.
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