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UK House Prices Forecasts and Predictions for Home and Property in the UK at 2nd March 2007

UK House Prices Situation: Fairly stable, some small increases

UK House Prices Forecast: Slowing growth in most areas

MPC Report Makes Grim Reading For Homebuyers

A new report published by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) provides a depressing outlook for many homeowners, predicting that financial conditions for homeowners could continue to toughen in coming years.

The report noted that inflation, one of the main factors that influences interest rates, has been "low and unusually stable" for a number years now, leading to equally low interest rates.

The Bank's forecast is that this is unlikely to continue, with the report commenting that "the [economic] environment is unlikely to be so benign in the future" – suggesting a medium-long term outlook of higher inflation and interest rates.

The report also highlighted the growth of secured debt over the last decade – mortgages and other debt secured on people's homes has risen from 75 per cent of household take-home pay in 1996 to 120 per cent of household take-home pay today.

This increase in debt load could cause any fall in house prices to have a greater impact than would otherwise be the case, the reported commented.

RICS Figures Show Demand Overriding Cooling Prices

Recent figures published by RICS, the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors, show that while the housing market might be cooling, property prices are being sustained in many areas by a combination of strong demand and restricted supply.

The number of unsold properties on surveyors' books has fallen to the lowest levels since August 2004, reflecting not only continued demand but perhaps growing caution amongst sellers.

Similarly, RICS expects new buyer enquiries to tail off a little in coming months, as January's interest rate rises make themselves felt through the market.

Despite this, RICS feels that the market remains fundamentally strong, with spokesman Jeremy Leaf saying "there are few signs that the market will take a significant turn for the worse."



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