UK House Prices Situation at 24 8 07: Stable overall, some regional rises and falls

UK House Prices Forecast: Limited to no growth in most areas, falls in some areas

RICS Figures Suggest Gradual Slowdown

New figures from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) suggest that a gradual slowdown in the housing market is likely.

In July, RICS members reported small falls in prices in East Anglia, the East Midlands and Wales.

New enquiries from potential buyers fell, as did new instructions to sell property. Unsold stock levels are at their highest since January and the number of completed sales per surveyor fell from 24.4 in June to 23.5 in July.

Although July did see overall growth, this was substantially below the long-term average, with only 12.6% more chartered surveyors reporting a rise in prices than a fall. The long-term average is 21.6%.

RICS spokesman Jeremy Leaf said that "Buyer activity has pulled back a little over fears that we may have seen the top of the market". He commented that uncertainty over interest rates might mean that "first-time-buyers are continuing to rent until the market trend becomes clearer."

Will US Subprime Problems Impact UK House Prices?

There has been much concern this week over the stock market instability resulting from the US subprime mortgage sector's well-publicised problems. Many people fear that the knock-on effects of these problems could result in falling UK house prices, especially if UK mortgage lenders tighten their lending policies as a result.

Fionnuala Earley, chief economist at Nationwide believes that:
"It's too early to conclude what the impact of the current jitters in the market will be, but these developments will cause some reassessment of risk in the housing sector.

"In terms of the implications for the UK housing market that could mean that wholesale funding costs will increase and that lenders tighten up their own criteria…"

Earley went on to say that these developments could lessen the risk of any further interest rate increases, which would help reduce scale of any price falls.

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