UK House Prices Situation: Strong

UK House Prices Forecast: Strong growth for Q1 & Q2 2007

House Prices Rise for 13th Consecutive Month

Average house prices have risen for the 13th consecutive month, according to the Homebuyer Show, who commissioned the report. The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors, RICS, also reported continued growth, with 50 per cent more of their members reporting a rise in prices during November than a fall.

Jeremy Leaf, of RICS, commented that although there is concern over high consumer debt levels, "…strong employment conditions and a robust economy continue to shield the market from any dip."

2006's Most Accurate Predictor Reveals 2007 Predictions

2006's most accurate house price predictions were by Lombard Street Research, who correctly predicted an average increase of around 10 per cent for this year.

Lombard have just published their 2007 forecasts, which suggest that average house prices will increase by between 10 and 15 per cent in 2007, on the back of record mortgage lending, low interest rates and shortage of housing in some areas of the UK.

Diana Choyleva, a forecaster at Lombard Street Research, said that "House prices are not overvalued if you look at affordability with interest rates at just 5%."

Although Lombard predict a strong 2007, they did note that double-digit growth this coming year could lead to a housing market bubble developing in 2008, with the potential for a market adjustment.

Mortgage Lending Reaches Record High

Mortgage lending in November reached a new high of £33.1 billion – up 9 per cent on October, and 19 per cent on this time last year.

The figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders highlight continuing strong demand for housing and suggest that the two interest rate rises seen this year have not yet had a significant effect on consumer confidence, despite record consumer debt levels.