Old UK House Prices Forecasts and Predictions in the UK from Mortgagesorter at 20 June 2008

House Price Forecasts and Predictions in the UK at 30 May 2008

UK House Prices Situation: Sellers resisting falling sale prices

UK House Prices Forecast: 5% - 10% fall by end 2008, further falls in 2009

Rightmove Figures Show "Drastic Regional Differences"

Property website Rightmove published its latest House Price Index this week, revealing that average asking prices in England and Wales have risen by 1.2% in the last month.

However, these figures conceal the genuine direction of the market, according to Rightmove, which says that the spike in prices is largely being caused by "discretionary sellers" - those who are selling through choice, not financial necessity - in the south.

Such sellers can afford to overprice their properties and then wait for months to see if they can get a sale, but they are failing to recognise the changes in the market, says Rightmove Commercial Director Miles Shipside. "New sellers can see the storm clouds overhead but seem to believe it’s only raining on other people" said Shipside. He believes that sellers who are holding on in hope of getting last summer's prices will be "punished by a lower price in the long run".

Rightmove's regional figures reflected this diagnosis, with falls in some areas and against-trend rises in others - suggesting sellers are having one last attempt to achieve boom prices:

· South East: 4.2% (6.0%)
· North West: 1.2% (-2.5%)
· Yorkshire & Humberside: 1.2% (-2.3%)
· South West: 1.0% (2.4%)
· Greater London: 0.2% (5.0%)
· West Midlands: -0.5% (2.2%)
· North: -1.1% (-0.4%)
· Wales: -1.4% (-2.2%)
· East Midlands: -1.5% (-0.7%)
· East Anglia: -1.5% (-0.4%)

Rightmove also commented that the lack of mortgage market liquidity is making it extremely difficult for new housing sale chains to form and complete successfully.

CML Forecast 7% Fall in 2008

The Council for Mortgage Lenders (CML), which represents the majority of mortgage lenders in the UK, has revised its house price forecast for the remainder of 2008.

It had originally predicted a 1% rise in house prices this year but is now forecasting that house prices will fall by an average of 7% by the end of 2008.

The director general of the CML, Michael Coogan, also said that "lending volumes will get worse before they get better" - a reference to the continuing tightness of the mortgage market.

Read about UK House Price indexes / key statistics that track the ups and downs of house prices

Read our take on the Credit Crisis the effect on UK House Prices and Mortgages. A Special Report

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