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UK House Prices Situation at 9 11 2007: Fairly stable, some variation regionally
UK House Prices Forecast: A gradual slowdown still looks most likely
Nationwide Says They Are Going Up…
To most people's surprise, Nationwide's monthly house price index revealed that the average UK house price increased by 1.1% in October.
However, Nationwide chief economist Fionnuala Earley said that it might just be the case that a relatively low stock of properties for sale is providing "residual support" to prices. Nationwide itself admitted that it would be "misguided" to believe that this single figure signified that house prices had not been affected by the credit problems in the financial markets.
Hometrack Says They Are Going Down…
At almost the same time, Hometrack's monthly house price index was published for October. This showed that the average UK property price had fallen by 0.1% in October - taking Hometrack's measure of annual growth to just 4.4%, its lowest for more than a year.
Hometrack are currently forecasting just 1% growth in average house prices in 2008 and say they believe that transaction volumes will fall substantially - by 17%.
But Do You Really Care?
In a survey of 1,000 people by the BBC, 88% said that even a 10% fall in house prices would not affect their spending habits.
A surprising 80% of those surveyed said that falling house prices would not affect their borrowing decisions, either - whether for home improvements or holidays.
Decline in City Bonus Spending Could Be Significant
Much of the boom in house prices has radiated outwards from the wealthy parts of central London and the south-east - and this could be coming to an end, according to new figures.
It's thought that the amount of city bonus cash being spent on property will fall by as much as 60% in 2008 - resulting in a considerable reduction in price pressure on upmarket homes in the more desirable areas of southern England.
This reduction in expenditure could well have a knock-on effect at lower levels of the market - as predicted by a number of economists.
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