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Interest Rate Update 25/8/10 UK Interest Rate: 0.5% UK Interest Rates Forecast: Low rates could give false sense of security Mortgage Lending Up 5% In July Total mortgage lending rose by 5% in July, according to new figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders. Despite the 5% rise, however, it was still 3% below the level seen in July 2009. Commenting on the figures, CML economist Paul Samter said: "It is difficult to see anything other than a slow market for the rest of this year as underlying activity remains subdued. The rest of 2010 is likely to see rather lower lending and transaction numbers compared to the same period last year." Could Interest Rates Hit 8%? Most economists have different opinions on the future of interest rates, some more extreme than others. One person who is at the far end of the spectrum is Andrew Lilico, chief economist at the Policy Exchange think tank. Lilico recently warned that there is a high risk of a return to "boom and bust" and that one of the consequences of this would be high inflation – and high interest rates. Lilico believes that in the event of the RPI measure of inflation reaching 10%, interest rates could have to rise to 8%. The result of this would be that mortgage rates would probably exceed 10% - and might even reach 12%-14%, a level not seen since the early 1990s. I would stress that Lilico's forecast is considered fairly extreme – but there is an important point to be made. A Bank of England rate of 0.5% is not normal and cannot last forever. One day, interest rates on mortgages will have to rise. Homeowners need to start planning for this now – rather than waiting until it's too late.
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| Background to this report It can be difficult to accurately forecast the movements of the UK property market and to predict forthcoming changes to interest rates – that is why each week we analyze all the latest expert opinion on the state of the UK property market and condense it into a short, easy-to-read UK Property Market Forecast. We also do the same for UK interest rates, and each week produce an Interest Rate Forecast which provides the latest interest rate forecasts and predictions for the UK. Understanding the factors that are influencing interest rate and property market forecasts can give you an advantage when considering a property purchase. The UK property market is affected by a number of different factors, which combine in sometimes surprising and quite localised ways. Our weekly UK Property Market Forecast takes all of these into consideration and provides a mixture of national and local property market forecasts. In much the same way, movements to UK interest rates can sometimes be forecast. We provide the latest interest rate forecasts and predictions from leading UK experts, together with comment on what it all means and how factors like inflation and energy prices are influencing interest rate forecasts. |
Interest Rates Forecast to 10/10/06
Interest Rates Forecast to 20/10/06
Interest Rates Forecast to 27/10/06
Interest Rates Forecast to 7/11/06
Interest Rates Forecast to 22/11/06
Interest Rates Forecast to 27/11/06
Interest Rates Forecast to 3/12/06
Interest Rates Forecast to 10/12/06
Interest Rates Forecast to 17/12/06
Interest Rates Forecast to 22/12/06
Interest Rates Forecast to 29/12/06
Interest Rates Forecast to 5/1/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 12/1/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 19/1/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 26/1/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 2/2/07
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Interest Rates Forecast to 16/2/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 23/2/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 2/3/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 9/3/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 16/3/07
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Interest Rates Forecast to 30/3/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 6/4/07
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Interest Rates Forecast to 27/4/07
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Interest Rates Forecast to 18/5/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 25/5/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 8/6/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 15/6/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 22/6/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 6/7/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 13/7/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 20/7/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 27/7/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 3/8/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 10/8/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 17/8/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 24/8/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 31/8/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 7/9/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 14/9/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 21/9/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 28/9/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 5/10/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 12/10/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 19/10/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 26/10/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 2/11/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 9/11/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 16/11/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 30/11/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 7/12/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 14/12/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 21/12/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 28/12/07
Interest Rates Forecast to 11/1/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 18/1/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 25/1/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 1/2/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 8/2/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 15/2/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 22/2/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 29/2/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 7/3/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 14/3/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 21/3/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 28/3/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 4/4/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 11/4/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 18/4/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 25/4/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 2/5/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 9/5/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 16/5/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 23/5/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 30/5/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 6/6/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 13/6/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 27/6/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 25/7/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 29/8/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 26/9/08
Interest Rates Forecast to 31/10/08
Interest
Rates Forecast to 3/11/08
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Rates Forecast to 5/12/08
Interest Rates Forecast December 2008
Interest Rates Forecast January 2009
Interest Rates Forecast February 2009
Interest Rates Forecast March 2009
UK Interest Rates Forecast to 5/6/09
UK Forecast Interest Rates to 19/6/09
Forecast UK Interest Rates to 26/6/09
Interest Rates UK Forecast to 3/7/09
Interest Rates Forecast to 10 July 2009
Forecast UK Interest Rates to 17/7/09
UK Forecast Interest Rates to 24/7/09
Interest Rates Forecast to 7 Aug 2009
Forecast UK Interest Rates to 14/8/09
UK Forecast Interest Rates to 16/10/09
UK Interest Rates Forecast to 21/10/2009
Forecast UK Interest Rates to 28 Oct 2009
Interest Rates Forecast to 4 Nov 2009
UK Forecast Interest Rates to 11/11/09
UK Interest Rates Forecast to 18 Nov 2009
Forecast UK Interest Rates to 25/11/2009
Interest Rates UK Forecast to 2 Dec 2009
UK Forecast Interest Rates to 9/12/09
UK Interest Rates Forecast to 16 Dec 2009
Forecast UK Interest Rates to 23/12/2009
Interest Rates Forecast to 30 /12/2009
UK Interest Rates Forecast and Predictions to 6 Jan 2010
Predictions and Interest Rates Forecast to 13 Jan 2010
Forecast UK Interest Rates to 20/1/10
Interest Rates Forecast to 27 Jan 2010
Predictions and Interest Rates Forecast to 3/2/10
UK Interest Rates Forecast and Predictions to 10 Feb 2010
Predictions and Interest Rates Forecast to 17 Feb 2010
Forecast UK Interest Rates to 3/3/10
UK Predictions and Interest Rates Forecast to 10/3/2010
UK Interest Rates Forecast and Predictions to 17 Mar 2010
Forecast Interest Rates to 24/3/10
Predictions and Interest Rates Forecast to 31 Mar 2010
UK Interest Rates Forecast and Predictions to 7 April 2010
UK Forecast Interest Rates to 14/4/10
UK Predictions and Interest Rates Forecast to 21/4/2010
Interest Rates Forecast and Predictions to 28/4/2010
Predictions and UK Interest Rates Forecast to 5 May 2010
Forecast Interest Rates to 12/5/10
UK Predictions and Interest Rates Forecast to 19/5/10
Interest Rates Forecast and Predictions to 26/5/2010
UK Forecast Interest Rates to 2/6/10
Predictions and Interest Rates Forecast to 9 June 2010
Forecast Interest Rates to 16/6/10
Interest Rates Forecast and Predictions to 14/7/2010
UK Forecast Interest Rates to 21 July 10
Predictions and Interest Rates Forecast to 28 July 2010
Forecast Interest Rates to 4/8/10
UK Interest Rates Forecast and Predictions to 11 Aug 2010
Predictions and Interest Rates Forecast to 18/810
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