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UK Interest Rates Forecasts and Predictions for Home and Property in the UK at 1 2 2008
| UK Interest Rate: 5.5% UK Interest Rates Forecast: Cut seen as likely by many in February MPC Vote 8-1 for January Rate Hold When the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee decided to keep rates on hold in January, many analysts believed it was a finely balanced decision - assuming several members of the MPC would have wanted a cut. It turns out they were wrong. Eight of the nine members of the MPC voted to leave rates unchanged, according to the minutes of the January meeting, published this week. Only one dissenter, American David Blanchflower, voted for a cut of 0.25% on the grounds that the risk of a sharp global slowdown had increased considerably, making a cut appropriate. This result seems to suggest that the case for a cut in February - widely expected - is not as strong as previously thought. Inflation Concerns Persist As in previous months, the MPC's main concern when considering changes to the Bank's interest rate has been inflation. The government's preferred CPI measure of inflation has remained stubbornly at 2.1% in recent months - above its 2% target. The minutes of January's MPC meeting confirm that this is one of the Bank's major concerns. Stating that the short-term outlook for inflation had "worsened markedly", they observed that rising energy prices - including gas and electricity - were continuing to "put substantial upwards pressure" on inflation in the near term. Further more, increases in inflation in the short term were likely to raise wage and price expectations - feeding back to create an "upside risk to inflation over the medium term." The MPC's February decisions will in part be influenced by the Bank's February Inflation Report - due for publication early in the month. |
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