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| UK Interest Rate: 5.75% UK Interest Rates Forecast: Increase to 6% likely later this year Bank of England MPC Vote 6-3 for July Rise - Is the End Near? The minutes of the July meeting of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting were published this week, revealing a more dovish outlook than previously seen. Although the committee voted 6-3 in favour of the rise in base rates to 5.75%, there was a sense that further rises may not be so inevitable. John Wraith, interest rate strategist at RBS, took the view that the minutes signalled that the end of the rises might be in sight: "It's becoming a more even debate and reflects the view they're nearly done: we're not talking about several further tightenings ahead." Most analysts still believe that a further rise to 6% is likely later this year, but the likelihood of further rises is unclear. Oil Prices Help Push Inflation Upwards Although interest rates might be nearing their peak, inflation is proving stubbornly resistant, not least thanks to record oil prices. There are concerns that this could lead to as much as a 0.5% increase in inflation in the coming months - and although high oil prices ultimately lead to a reduction in consumer spending, the rise in inflation could support the case for further interest rate rises. The markets are expecting oil prices to stay high for the rest of the year, and Karen Ward, chief UK economist at HSBC believes this could lead to higher rates for everyone: "Unless it's very clear that consumers are reacting to higher rates and higher prices, then the Bank of England are going to take a hard line, and there will be more rate hikes on the back of it." |
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