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UK Interest Rates Forecasts and Predictions for Home and Property in the UK at 26 10 2007
| UK Interest Rate: 5.75% UK Interest Rates Forecast: Rate cuts likely, but probably not this year Fall in Mortgage Lending in September - Are Rates Biting? The Council of Mortgage Lenders, which represents almost all the UK's mortgage lenders, has this week published new figures showing that total mortgage lending fell by 12% from August to September. A seasonal fall of around 5% is normally expected at this time of year - considerably less than the 12% the CML's members have observed. The decline in lending is thought to be largely the result of higher interest rates and tightening lending standards. Disturbingly, the period covered by the statistics took place before the shock of Northern Rock's troubles. CML Director-General Michael Coogan says that they expect further reductions in lending, saying that "we expect to see monthly lending levels dip below their 2006 levels for the first time this year". Bank Vote 8-1 to Hold Interest Rates The minutes of the October meting of the Monetary Policy Committee were published this week. They reveal that the MPC seriously discussed the pros and cons of an interest rate cut in October, before putting it to the vote. In the event, only one member voted in favour of a cut, with the remaining eight believing that it made more sense to leave rates unchanged and wait for November's economic figures. A Reuters poll of economist found that 42/62 expect rates to fall to 5.5% or less in the first quarter of 2008, but only 14/62 believe that rates will be but before the end of 2007. Inflation Holds Steady New inflation figures, published this week, show that the government's preferred CPI measure of inflation held steady at 1.8% in September, just below the target 2% level. The more inclusive RPI measure of inflation dropped from 4.1% to 3.9%. This stability suggests that interest rates are working to combat increases in prices and many analysts expect that the Bank of England will leave rates unchanged for a little longer to protect against the inflationary effects of food and oil price rises. |
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