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UK Interest Rates Forecasts and Predictions for Home and Property in the UK at 29 Feb 2008
UK Interest Rate: 5.25% UK Interest Rates Forecast: Cut to at least 5% likely later this year BoE MPC Minutes Show Rate Cut Unity The minutes from the Bank of England's most recent MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting were published this week, providing an insight into the thinking and voting behind this month's 0.25% interest rate cut. The MPC concluded that although there were short-term pressures driving inflation up - principally food and energy prices - these were like to moderate later in 2008, allowing CPI inflation to fall back towards its 2% target. In order to avoid a too-sharp reduction in demand - which might pull inflation below its target - the MPC agreed that an immediate cut in interest rates was required. All nine members voted for a cut - but one member, David Blanchflower, voted for a reduction of 0.5%, rather than the more modest 0.25% cut preferred by the other members. 'Mortgage Payment Shock' Not As Bad as Expected? Financial journalists regularly wrote about the coming impact of 'mortgage payment shock' towards the end of 2007. This was the supposed impact on borrowers of sudden increases in their mortgage rates as fixed/tracker periods came to an end. There was much doom and gloom over this but subsequent interest rate cuts and a slightly more stable mortgage market now mean that many people will only face a small increase in their monthly payments, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders. The CML expects to see mortgage rates continue to fall this year, meaning that by the end of the year, a homeowner remortgaging a £114,000 repayment mortgage from a two-year fix to a tracker could face a mortgage payment increase of just £39 a month. The CML added that most people will have seen an increase in their take-home pay since they took out their fixed rate mortgage, helping to offset any increase in their monthly mortgage payments. |
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