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UK Interest Rates Forecasts and Predictions for Home and Property in the UK at 29 Aug 2008
| UK Interest Rate: 5.00% UK Interest Rates Forecast: Likely to remain unchanged until much later in 2008 Bank of England Leaves Rates Unchanged In July The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee chose to leave interest rates unchanged at 5% in July. The decision was widely expected by economists and the City, with most observers not expecting a change in rates until much later this year. Minutes Reveal 3-Way Split Over Rate Decision Despite the MPC voting to maintain interest rates at their current rate in July, voting was by no means unanimous. As usual, American Professor David Blanchflower supported a cut in rates, fearful that maintaining rates at their current level will result in the economy slowing down too much. Conversely, MPC member Tim Beasley put forward the case for an increase in rates, citing continually strengthening inflation and strong consumer spending as justification for a higher base rate. Despite the arguments in favour of increased rates, it seems unlikely that they will rise in the foreseeable future. The latest CBI industrial trends survey showed shrinking order books for British manufacturing companies and the business optimism balance – a measure of sentiment – decreased dramatically, indicating a lack of confidence amongst UK businesses. It all adds up to a difficult challenge for the MPC. Inflation must be allowed to top out and start to fall, but it mustn’t peak too high or fall too fast. Most analysts expect this mean that rates will remain unchanged until late in 2008. For example, Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide’s chief economist, said that “adverse inflation developments” mean that they “do not expect an early change in the Bank Rate”. |
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