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| UK Interest Rate: 5.00% UK Interest Rates Forecast: Rate cuts unlikely before Q4 2008 MPC Minutes Show Inflation Priority The minutes from the May meeting of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee have been published this week. They confirm that the MPC's priority is controlling inflation and that they consider a period of reduced economic growth "necessary" to achieve inflation targets. The MPC also noted that it was important for them to manage the public's expectation of inflation levels. Most members considered that a cut in the bank rate would make it "more difficult" to keep inflation expectations under control. Given the latest inflation figures and the Bank's reaffirmed commitment to their inflation targets, it seems extremely unlikely that there will be a rate cut until much later this year. Most Economists Expect Q4 Rate Cut Most economists surveyed in a Reuters poll are still expecting a cut in the final quarter of 2008, but not until then. The median forecast predicted a cut to 4.75% in September with a further cut to 4.5% by the end of the year. This corresponds broadly with the expectations of a group of leading economists interviewed by the Guardian newspaper. Amit Kara, an economist at UBS, said that "in our view the next move [in interest rates] will be a cut, and we will have to wait for that until November". Inflationary Pressures Continue The latest figures from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) show that UK manufacturers are planning to increase their prices faster than at any point in the last 12 years over the coming months. The figures show that rising input costs - raw materials and fuel - are to blame for the price rises. Of the businesses surveyed, 30 per cent more are planning to increase prices than decrease them in the next few months - the highest level since February 1995. The CBI survey also found that manufacturers' order books are continuing to weaken for the second consecutive month. |
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