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UK Interest Rates Forecasts and Predictions for Home and Property in the UK at 6 June 2008
| UK Interest Rate: 5.00% UK Interest Rates Forecast: Rate cut highly unlikely in June CBI Reports 56% Retailers Increased Prices in May The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) published its latest 'distributive trades survey' this week. The survey, which looks at prices and sales amongst retailers, found that 56% of retailers increased their prices in May - the highest proportion for 16 years. Businesses said that they were increasing prices as a result of higher input costs - energy, food and raw materials. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the CBI also found that sales on the high street were down for the second consecutive month. 42% of retailers reported lower volumes, with 28% saying that they had seen an increase. These figures, which reflect continued inflationary pressures in the economy, are likely to help convince members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee that June is not the time for a rate cut. Most analysts expect interest rates to stay on hold this month. Commenting on the figures, Howard Archer of Global Insight said that "the Bank of England is unlikely to trim interest rates again until August at the very earliest…". IMF - No Rate Cuts for UK The International Monetary Fund has just completed its latest economic health check on the UK. In the report, the IMF indicates that despite slowing economic activity, there is no scope for further interest rate cuts at present if inflation is to be brought under control successfully. The IMF reiterated its April forecast of 1.75% economic growth for this year and said that it expected only a "gradual" recovery in 2009 - a far more reserved forecast than that of the Chancellor, who is predicting a strong pickup in growth next year. |
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