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UK Interest Rates Forecasts and Predictions for Home and Property in the UK 8 2 2008
| UK Interest Rate: 5.5% UK Interest Rates Forecast: Cut seen as very likely in February Reuters Poll Shows Cuts Expected In a recent poll by Reuters of 60 economists, all 60 said that they expected the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee to cut interest rates at their February meeting, scheduled for the 6/7 February. Economists put the chance of a February cut at 70%, while a cut by March was considered almost a certainty, at 90%. Despite the strength of feeling over the likelihood of a cut in interest rates, the cut is only expected to be 0.25% - with only a 10% chance of a more substantial 0.5% cut. Looking further ahead, the financial markets have begun to price in cuts taking the interest rates down as low as 4.5% by the end of 2008. This may be based as much on hope as expectation - it isn't at all certain that the Bank of England will follow the US Federal Reserve's example in drastically cutting rates to try and prevent a downturn. A slow steady decline in rates seems more likely - as hinted at by John Hawksworth of PriceWaterhouseCoopers, who when discussing rate cuts said that "we would expect the MPC to proceed cautiously down this path." Blanchflower Confirms He Wants Rate Cuts In January's meeting of the MPC, only one member voted for a cut in the Bank's interest rate. David Blanchflower, the only American on the committee, has since expanded on his decision, explaining why he believes a cut is necessary. In an interview with The Guardian newspaper, he said "Consumer confidence is low in the UK. Interest rates are restrictive at their current levels and that is why I have been voting for cuts." Blanchflower also likened using inflation concerns to justify holding rates to "fiddling while Rome burns." |
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