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UK Interest Rates Forecasts and Predictions for Home and Property in the UK at 9 May 2008
| UK Interest Rate: 5.00% UK Interest Rates Forecast: Cut to 4.75% possible in June Interest Rate Cuts - How Much Further? The Bank of England's latest Financial Stability Report was published this week, providing an interesting insight into the Bank's current assessment of our economic condition. Of most interest to homeowners were the comments relating to the credit market - particularly the mortgage market. Bank Deputy Governor Sir John Gieve states in the report that "the pricing of risk in credit markets seems to have swung from being unsustainably low last summer to being temporarily too high relative to fundamentals." In other words, lenders were lending too much money to too many people this time last year - and now they aren't lending enough money to enough people. Gieve's view on this situation is that "the most likely path ahead is that confidence and risk appetite will return gradually in the coming months." This relatively positive attitude makes the likelihood of further interest rate cuts seem less clear. Another cut to 4.75% was expected at some point this summer - as indicated by the Bank's own inflation report in February. The chances are that this cut will still take place - but how many further cuts are likely is less clear. Howard Archer, chief UK economist at Global Insight, said: "That the Bank appears to believe the worst of the credit crunch may be over suggests that they be more reluctant to cut interest rates." Mortgage Lenders Continue To Tighten Purse Strings Meanwhile, some the UK's mortgage lenders have continued to tighten their lending criteria. This week has seen some leading mortgage lenders take a range of measures to protect themselves from the possibility of falling house prices - including increases to minimum deposits, higher variable interest rates and a reduction in the availability of interest-only mortgages. |
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