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UK Interest Rates Latest Update
Interest Rate Update 3/2/2010
Current UK Interest Rate: 0.5%
UK Interest Rates Forecast: Rate rise unlikely this side of the general election
CEBR Forecasts No Rate Rise Until 2011
The Centre for Economic and Business Research has released a new economic forecast predicting that the Bank of England will not raise interest rates "until mid-late 2011".
Mortgage Rate Differential Grows As Approvals Dip
The difference between the highest and lowest variable mortgage rates on the market is now 10.5%, according to research by largemortgageloans.com. The highest SVR (standard variable rate) on the market is 12.5% - a whopping 10.5% above the lowest variable mortgage rate of 2%.
Meanwhile, new Bank of England figures show that new mortgage approvals fell in December for the first time in more than a year. However, approvals for remortgaging rose slightly from November, suggesting perhaps that remortgaging deals are becoming slightly more attractive. In an interview with Bloomberg, James Knightley of ING Financial Markets said "Credit availability is still restrictive."
Overall, net mortgage lending rose by £1.2bn in December.
Bank Rate Decision Made Harder By Rising Inflation
As this article is written, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is beginning its monthly two-day meeting to decide on interest rate policy for February. Their decision may be made harder by the conflicting demands of rising inflation – suggesting higher interest rates are needed – and weak growth – suggesting that no interest rate rise is needed.
The balance of probability
is that there will be no rate rise this month, but the MPC has been known
to spring an occasional surprise on the markets.
PREVIOUS UK MORTGAGE INTEREST RATE FORECASTS
UK House Price Forecasts and Predictions Latest Updates
House Price Update 3/2/2010
Current UK House Prices Situation: Growth in some areas
UK House Prices Forecast: Continued growth in 2010
CEBR Forecasts 20% Rise Over 4 Years
The Centre for Economic and Business Research has forecast that UK house prices could rise by as much as 20% over the next four years, thanks to a shortfall in new housing.
The CEBR said it expects to see house prices rise by 6.5% in 2010 – a significant increase on its October forecast, when it said that it expected to see growth of around 2.6% in 2010.
Increased mortgage lending, continuing low interest rates, low unemployment and a shortage of new properties on the market will drive growth, according to the CEBR forecast.
Land Registry Confirms Modest Rise in December
The latest completed sale house price figures from the Land Registry confirm that average house prices rose in December – just. The average UK house price rose by 0.1% in December but there were strong regional variations.
The North East and the West Midlands saw the strongest growth, at 1.9%. Wales saw the worst results, with prices falling by 2% in December alone. Over the last year, most regions have seen overall growth but Wales, the North East and the North West have seen an overall fall.
Nationwide and Hometrack HPIs Published
Nationwide has published its latest HPI. It found that average UK house prices rose by 1.2% in January, giving an annual rate of 8.6%. Nationwide chief economist Martin Gahbauer said that "Unless there is a fall in property values in February, annual house price inflation is likely to move into double-digit territory next month for the first time since May 2007."
However, Gahbauer stressed that "negative earnings growth" will "limit the upside potential for the current recovery in house prices."
Hometrack's latest
house price survey was more negative, finding overall growth of just 0.1%
in January, with prices rising in only 7% of postcodes. Hometrack described
the outlook for 2010 as "uncertain".
PREVIOUS UK HOUSE PRICE FORECASTS
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